President Rallying Support in Polls
Rebound Sets Campaign Team into Action

By Mike Allen and Claudia Deane
Washington Post Staff Writers
Wednesday, October 15, 2003; Page A06

Heartened by opinion polls indicating President Bush's six-month slide may have ended, his aides are working to reassure supporters that his standing is solid despite a fall full of setbacks.

Bush aides expressed relief at several polls this week, including a Washington Post-ABC News poll released yesterday, that found the president's approval rating stabilizing after a steady drop since Iraqi President Saddam Hussein was ousted in mid-April.

Except wait--hold up for just a sec. Let's look at a few of these new poll numbers.

1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?

10/13/03
53 Approve
42 Disapprove

9/30/03
54 Approve
44 Disapprove

OK, so...let me get this straight: Bush's approval rating has gone down one point. But let's be fair--his disapproval has gone down two points as well. So let's call it a 1-point "gain" for Bush! Nice comeback, dude!

"There was a poll that showed me going up yesterday, not to be on the defensive," [Bush] told Australia's Channel 9 television, according to an Associated Press report. "Actually, I'm in pretty good shape, politically. I really am. I didn't mean to sound defensive. But I am.

Well put. Oh, there's also this little item:

3. If the 2004 presidential election were being held today, would you vote for (George W. Bush, the Republican) or for (the Democratic nominee for president)?

10/13/03 Bush 46 Democratic 47

9/13/03 Bush 49 Democratic 44

Geez! It looks like Bush's re-elect numbers have gone down a net 6 points! More people would vote for the Democratic candidate than for Bush. But I suppose that's irrelevant, because "Rebound Sets Campaign Team into Action."

And did I mention this?

5. Again thinking about the goals versus the costs of the war, so far in your opinion has there been an acceptable or unacceptable number of U.S. military casualties in Iraq?

10/13/03 Acceptable 38 Unacceptable 59

9/13/03 Acceptable 43 Unacceptable 55

Or this?

7. On another subject, the U.S. Justice Department has opened an investigation into whether someone in the White House broke the law by identifying a former diplomat's wife as an undercover CIA agent. The former diplomat claims this was done to punish him for criticizing U.S. policy on Iraq. Do you think this is a very serious matter, somewhat serious, not too serious or not serious at all?

10/13/03 Serious 83 Not serious 13

9/30/03 Serious 81 Not serious 16

Or this?

9. Do you think the White House is or is not fully cooperating with this investigation?

10/13/03 Yes, cooperating 39 No, not cooperating 41

9/30/03 Yes, cooperating 47 No, not cooperating 37

Oops! A plurality of Americans now believe that the White House is not cooperating with the criminal investigation into its revenge-leak!

I didn't make this up. It's in the poll. But as Bush himself says,

"Politicians, by the way, who pay attention to the polls are doomed, trying to chase opinion when what you need to do is lead, set the tone."

Right! But still, you know, "President Rallying Support in Polls." I don't write the news, man, the Washington Post does. It had already been declared that this week was a Designated Bush Rebound Week, so who am I to piss on the party?

Well, I'm not the only one. ABC News says:

Poll: Bush Slipping
Iraq, Economic Problems Level the ’04 Playing Field

Check out Joe Conason's take on this latest poll ridiculousness.

Polls that offer solace to the Republicans, like the latest released by the Gallup organization, have received considerable coverage. Yet others, such as this one released the other day by Ipsos-Reid, got far less attention. The Ipsos-Reid survey is quite large and comprehensive. What did its pollsters see when they looked at the results from Oct. 7-9?

Bush's total approval rating is at 51 percent, a figure that includes those "leaning" toward approval. Strong approval was registered by 27 percent. His total approval rating is down from 57 percent last August. Those registering disapproval total 46 percent, up from 41 percent in August.

Only 36 percent of 1,000 registered voters said they would definitely vote to "reelect" Bush, down from 42 percent in the same poll last August. Thirty-five percent said they would definitely vote for someone else, while 26 percent were undecided.

One reason that Bush's ratings are down so far is the increasing inclination of the mainstream media to highlight critical perspectives that were mostly ignored during the drive to war. Tonight CBS's "60 Minutes II" will broadcast an interview with Greg Thielmann, who retired late last year from the State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research. Thielmann says that his former boss Colin Powell misled the world about Iraq's arsenal at the United Nations -- and that the Bush administration distorted intelligence findings to justify war. The former senior intelligence analyst has been saying much the same things for several months, including most recently on PBS's "Frontline," but this may be the first time that Thielmann's calmly devastating critique will reach a mass audience.
[11:30 a.m. PDT,Oct. 15, 2003]