I know I'm supposed to be roaming the PA hills-that-are-so-far-west-they're-
almost-more-like-being-in-the-midwest-than-being-in-PA, and not posting...
but I owe myself at least a little fun with...The Latest Numbers!!

Naturally, by the time you're reading this, our U.S. News Media will have
already explained how Bush's numbers have skyrocketed back up, and now that
the economy is irrevocably locked into a permanent growth explosion of 7%+
that will ensure Bush will be polling securely in the 90s by next month, we
can all breathe easy again...but wait: let's take a closer look.

Washington Post-ABC News Poll
Sunday, November 2, 2003

1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling
his job as president? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat?

10/29/03
56 Approve
42 Disapprove

OK--that's it folks, Bush Wins Election! But wait...

2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bush is handling (ITEM)?

10/29/03 - Summary Table*

a. The economy
45 Approve
53 Disapprove

89% of voters identify the economy as "important" in deciding their vote in
next year's presidential election.

b. The situation in Iraq
47 Approve
51 Disapprove

69% of voters identify the situation in Iraq as "important" in deciding
their vote in next year's presidential election.

compare with:
4/30/03
75 Approve
22 Disapprove

c. Education
55 Approve
38 Disapprove

Well, score on the "Leave No Child Behind," I guess--except that the 55%
approval number is the lowest of Bush's presidency so far; the 38%
disapproval is the highest of his presidency (except for 39% on 9/13/03).

73% of voters identify education as "important" in deciding their vote in
next year's presidential election.

d. Social Security
40 Approve
46 Disapprove

This 40% approval is the lowest of his presidency.

66% of voters identify Social Security as "important" in deciding their
vote in next year's presidential election.

e. Prescription drug benefits for the elderly
36 Approve
46 Disapprove

62% of voters identify prescription drugs for the elderly as "important" in
deciding their vote in next year's presidential election.

f. Foreign affairs
49 Approve
47 Disapprove

62% of voters identify "foreign affairs" as "important" in deciding their
vote in next year's presidential election.

g. The cost, availability and coverage of health insurance
28 Approve
63 Disapprove

Approval lowest, disapproval highest of presidency.

68% of voters identify health insurance as "important" in deciding their
vote in next year's presidential election.

h. Taxes
41 Approve
53 Disapprove

Now this is an interesting one...I thought tax cuts were good? Well, Bush
has passed some pretty damn big ones--but these numbers are the lowest
approval and highest disapproval of Bush's presidency.

63% of voters identify taxes as "important" in deciding their vote in next
year's presidential election.

i. The federal budget deficit
32 Approve
61 Disapprove

59% of voters identify the budget deficit as "important" in deciding their
vote in next year's presidential election.

j. The US campaign against terrorism
63 Approve
35 Disapprove

Now this is one where Bush is still obviously solid, and I really wouldn't
have expected otherwise. Even with the downward trend, the Pavlovian reflex
action of "I Support the War on Terror" is so ingrained at this point that
nothing (save another attack, which God willing will not happen) is gonna
change it. But still, the numbers have changed. Compare with a year ago:

10/27/02
78 Approve
20 Disapprove

Interesting, no? I guess at least a few people have finally admitted to
themselves that Iraq didn't actually do 9/11.

68% of voters identify "the U.S. campaign against terrorism" as "important"
in deciding their vote in next year's presidential election.

k. International affairs
50 Approve
43 Disapprove

So, what exactly accounts for the difference in the pollees' minds between
"Foreign affairs" and "International affairs" is pretty much beyond me.
Maybe they know something I don't.

Still, even though Americans seem to like "International" better than
"Foreign," these numbers are still--again--the lowest approval and highest
disapproval of Bush's presidency.

53% of voters identify "international affairs" as "important" in deciding
their vote in next year's presidential election. (That's 9% less than
"foreign affairs"--sorry, Internationalism!)

To summarize: on 7 out of 11 of the issues of most concern to Americans, voters disapprove of Bush's performance.

This was probably to be expected:

3. What do you think is a bigger problem facing the nation right now:
(terrorism) or (the economy)?

10/29/03
35 Terrorism
62 Economy

5. Do you think the U.S. campaign against terrorism is going very well,
fairly well, not too well or not well at all?

10/29/03
62 Well (lowest since 9/11)
38 Not Well (highest since 9/11)

16. All in all, considering the costs to the United States versus the
benefits to the United States, do you think the war with Iraq was worth
fighting, or not?

10/29/03
54 Worth fighting (lowest since war)
44 Not worth fighting (highest since war)

Here's an interesting side note. Compare those numbers with the analogous
numbers for Bush I's Gulf War in February of 1992:

2/2/92
66 Worth fighting
32 Not worth fighting

The trend continues with these numbers:

17. Again thinking about the goals versus the costs of the war, so far
in your opinion has there been an acceptable or unacceptable number of
U.S. military casualties in Iraq?

10/29/03
35 Acceptable
62 Unacceptable

And these:

17a. Earlier this year, Congress approved spending 79 billion dollars
to help pay for the war in Iraq and the rebuilding effort there. Bush
has now called for spending 87 billion dollars more. Do you support or
oppose this additional spending for the war and rebuilding in Iraq?

10/29/03
34 Support
64 Oppose

And these:

18. How do you feel about the possibility that the United States will
get bogged down in a long and costly peacekeeping mission in Iraq -
would you say you're very concerned about that, somewhat concerned, not
too concerned or not concerned at all?

10/29/03
87 Concerned
13 Not concerned

And look at the trend on this one. Needless to say, this is potentially a
very big deal:

19. Do you think (the United States should keep its military forces in
Iraq until civil order is restored there, even if that means continued
U.S. military casualties); or do you think (the United States should
withdraw its military forces from Iraq in order to avoid further U.S.
military casualties, even if that means civil order is not restored
there)?

10/29/03
58 Keep
38 Withdraw

9/13/03
65 Keep
32 Withdraw

8/24/03
69 Keep
27 Withdraw

7/10/03
72 Keep
26 Withdraw

That's a 26-point change since mid-July.

Now here's kind of a fun one:

15. Please tell me whether the following statement applies to Bush or
not.

a. He understands the problems of people like you
40 Yes
58 No

Now compare that with:

10/31/99
54 Yes
39 No

Man, did people ever give this guy the benefit of the doubt!

b. He is a strong leader
62 Yes (lowest since 9/11, incidentally)
37 No

OK, right, we know, Bush is a "strong leader." But look: this just kills me:

10/31/99
77 Yes
18 No

So 62% now think the man who "led us after 9/11" is a "strong leader"...but
77% thought he was a "strong leader" a year before the 2000 election? What
the hell was going on back then? Wow!

c. He is honest and trustworthy
59 Yes
40 No

The 40% "No" numbers on honesty are Bush's highest ever; to get "Yes"
numbers as low as 59% you have to go back to 10/15/00.

For a father/son comparison:

24. Would you say most Americans are better off financially than they
were in 2001 when Bush became president, not as well off, or in about
the same shape as then financially?

10/29/03
9 Better off
49 Not as well off
41 The same

And the father, at the equivalent point in his presidency:

George H. W. Bush

10/21/91
Better off 7
Not as well off 48
The same 41

Here's an interesting one:

27. (ASKED OF HALF SAMPLE) I am going to mention four phrases and ask
you which one best describes how you feel about the way the federal
government works. Do you feel enthusiastic, satisfied but not
enthusiastic, dissatisfied but not angry, or angry?

10/29/03
Enthusiastic 2
Satisfied 41
Dissatisfied 42
Angry 15

Now I'm not saying this means anything at all, but to get comparable
"angry" numbers you have to go back to Lewinsky/Impeachment:

9/28/98
Enthusiastic 4
Satisfied 44
Dissatisfied 37
Angry 14

And on to Election 2004. This one is still a dead heat:

8. If the 2004 presidential election were being held today, would you
vote for (George W. Bush, the Republican) or for (the Democratic
nominee for president)?

10/29/03
48 Bush
47 Democratic nominee

Now the individual match-ups. The Clark numbers surprise me, and I find
them rather disappointing:

10/29/03
51 Bush
40 Clark

Let's just skip Lieberman, since nobody gives a shit.

Now this one is interesting:

10/29/03
50 Bush
44 Kerry

Kerry seems to be doing better and better; in this set of polls, Kerry
actually polls the highest against Bush out of all the candidates. For more
on my intuitions about the possibly resurgent status of the Kerry campaign,
see my post on the last Democratic debate.

Others:

10/29/03
51 Bush
42 Gephardt

I think Dick Gephardt is a very nice man. A good man. Moving on...

10/29/03
54 Bush
39 Dean

Considering that Bush's re-elect numbers are 48/47 against an anonymous
Dem, I don't take his 54/39 against Dean as an especially hopeful sign. For
more on my intuitions about this, see the aforementioned post-debate post.

Clark's low matchup numbers can probably be attributed to this next
question, which shows people still don't know much about him (and that will
change):

43. (ASKED OF LEANED DEMOCRATS) Now for each candidate, please tell me
how much you feel you know about his positions on specific issues.

Wesley Clark
16 Great deal/good amount
83 Some/hardly any

Plus, Clark's numbers in the Democratic field go up significantly when the
question is who can beat Bush:

48. (Regardless of who you support), Which Democratic candidate do you
think has the best chance of defeating George W. Bush in November?

10/29/03
Lieb. 17*
Gep. 15
Kerry 8
Edw. 2
Dean 14
Clark 15

So Clark is right up there on the question that counts.

*(ASKED OF LEANED LIEBERMAN SUPPORTERS) Which of the following intoxicants
was most likely to have been affecting your judgment and/or faculty of
reason when you asserted that Lieberman had the best chance of defeating
George W. Bush in November?

10/29/03
Crack/"freebase" cocaine 23
LSD/LSD-25 ("Dark Star") 17
MDMA("X")/MDMMA/MDMMDA 14
Petroleum-based fume 13
Rapture 11
Other type thrall/transportation 7
Spontaneous acute retardation 6
Don't understand the question 5
Alexia (forgot what language is) 1
Aphasic alexia (unable to recognize the fact that one has forgotten what
language is) 3
Miscellaneous error 1

I take great heart in this:

44. (ASKED OF LEANED DEMOCRATS) Which is more important to you in
choosing a candidate for president: (their personal qualities such as
experience and leadership ability)-- or (their positions on specific
issues)?

10/29/03
40 Personal qualities
52 Positions on issues

Now compare that with the same question 2 months before the 2000 election:

9/6/00
45 Personal qualities
41 Positions on issues

Hooray for "positions on issues"! It's the new triumph of "substance"!