Wednesday, September 08, 2004

Take finger off panic button 

Says the Votemaster:
In the 3-day rolling average poll, Rasmussen now has Kerry and Bush exactly tied at 47.3% each nationally, with Kerry 1.2% ahead in the battleground states. If we compare this to the 3-day rolling average poll published Aug. 30, Bush is at exactly the same level he was then and Kerry is 0.9% higher. From these data, it appears that the postconvention bounce is already played out. In short, all the hand-wringing and cheering based on the Time and Newsweek polls was a bit premature. If you are a Democrat, you can stop crying in your beer; if you are a Republican, carefully try to pour the champagne back into the bottle. It is still very close.
Oh, and Zogby has Kerry still leading in 12 of 16 battleground states. (You'll recall that Zogby was the only pollster to accurately predict the national outcome of the 2000 election.)


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