Thursday, September 04, 2008

The map 

Take a look at the poll composites at pollster.com for today:

DEM: 260 electoral votes (231 strong, 29 lean)
REP: 176 (112 strong, 64 lean)
TOSS UP: 102

As you know, the first to 270 wins.

The Dem numbers are incredibly strong. The only "lean" states are Michigan (17 EV), Oregon (7), and New Mexico (5).

The toss-up states are Florida (27), Ohio (20), North Carolina (15), Virginia (13), Colorado (9), Nevada (5), New Hampshire (4), Montana (3), North Dakota (3), and Alaska (3).

So I think the key to winning the election is to hang on to Michigan while pushing for Ohio, Virginia, Colorado and New Hampshire.

Nevada and Montana are also winnable, and a poll came out today putting Obama ahead in North Dakota.

The scenarios for a McCain victory are very, very difficult to imagine. Even if he hangs on to all of the states currently in his column and steals Michigan, he would still need 77 electoral votes from the toss-up states. That's more than Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Virginia combined.

Think about what we've seen at the RNC so far. Is that going to steal Michigan? Is that going to be the death blow for Obama in FL and OH and NC and VA and at least one other toss-up state?


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