Wednesday, September 24, 2008
Quick question
I know I'm terribly naive and this would never happen in today's fucked up system, but --
1. The problem is that all these banks invested in securities backed by home mortgages that the homeowners can't pay off, rendering the investments worthless.
2. If somebody -- say, the federal gov't -- just went ahead and PAID OFF all the delinquent mortgages ... or paid off enough of them, or a sufficient portion of each mortgage, so that the homeowners could make their payments, wouldn't that restore the value to those investments?
3. Couldn't $700 billion go a really long way toward achieving point (2)?
According to Wikipedia (I know, Wikipedia, but anyway), "the U.S. mortgage market is estimated at $12 trillion with approximately 9.2% of loans either delinquent or in foreclosure."
So, just doing a back of the envelope calculation, let's say there's $1 trillion in bad mortgage debt out there (about 9.2% of $12 trillion). That is a shitload of money, but if you just went to the delinquent homeowners and, like, JUST GAVE THEM $700 billion -- the same way they want us to JUST GIVE Wall St. $700 billion -- wouldn't that solve a lot of issues?
Imagine you were struggling to make your monthly payment and then someone came along and gave you 70% of the principal balance, in cash, all at once. Would that not greatly increase the chances that you could pay off the remaining 30% on your own?
And would that not in turn make any bonds, credit swaps, etc. derived from your mortgage a valuable asset once more?
I'm just saying. If we're going to throw away this money on the mortgage crisis, let's do it from the bottom up.
1. The problem is that all these banks invested in securities backed by home mortgages that the homeowners can't pay off, rendering the investments worthless.
2. If somebody -- say, the federal gov't -- just went ahead and PAID OFF all the delinquent mortgages ... or paid off enough of them, or a sufficient portion of each mortgage, so that the homeowners could make their payments, wouldn't that restore the value to those investments?
3. Couldn't $700 billion go a really long way toward achieving point (2)?
According to Wikipedia (I know, Wikipedia, but anyway), "the U.S. mortgage market is estimated at $12 trillion with approximately 9.2% of loans either delinquent or in foreclosure."
So, just doing a back of the envelope calculation, let's say there's $1 trillion in bad mortgage debt out there (about 9.2% of $12 trillion). That is a shitload of money, but if you just went to the delinquent homeowners and, like, JUST GAVE THEM $700 billion -- the same way they want us to JUST GIVE Wall St. $700 billion -- wouldn't that solve a lot of issues?
Imagine you were struggling to make your monthly payment and then someone came along and gave you 70% of the principal balance, in cash, all at once. Would that not greatly increase the chances that you could pay off the remaining 30% on your own?
And would that not in turn make any bonds, credit swaps, etc. derived from your mortgage a valuable asset once more?
I'm just saying. If we're going to throw away this money on the mortgage crisis, let's do it from the bottom up.