Thursday, October 09, 2008
Daily Tracking Polls
A word about them. I too was freaking out slightly yesterday because of apparent movement toward McCage in two of the five major daily tracking polls, Hotline/Diageo and Zogby.
posted by Blicero : 10/09/2008 05:18:00 PM
It was both comforting and informative to read this post from Chris Bowers about ceilings and flux in these polls. If a poll makes you freak out, I suggest you read it.
And then look. Today, both Zogby and Hotline/Diageo have widened again. Yesterday, the composite of the five polls was Obama + 6.5%. Today it's Obama +7.3%.
As Bowers points out, in the context of contemporary vote percentages, either of these composite numbers represents a borderline landslide. But the most important thing to remember is that Obama's "ceiling" is probably around +8% (so, e.g., don't expect Obama to be able to win by 11% or 12% based on what Gallup is polling--it just won't happen), AND that polls don't remain static, so there will be slight downturns and narrowings even when no substantive change is occurring in the campaign equilibrium. There will be flux, and most of it's noise.
posted by Blicero : 10/09/2008 05:18:00 PM
