Friday, October 03, 2008
Random VP debate thoughts
The people running McCain/Palin '08 are not good at what they do. They should have sent Palin on a balls-out kamikaze attack mission tonight. That would have been the correct move -- either she does real damage to Obama/Biden that swings the momentum, or else she crashes and burns so badly that McCain can get rid of her and replace her with Romney. I mean, what does McCain care about the risk of a train wreck? She already was a train wreck. And thanks to YouTube the train wreck will be replayed a zillion times anyway. So they made the wrong choice, played it safe, and got nothing out of this. The state of the race is still status quo, and the status quo for McCain right now is free fall.
Plus, not only does McCain not reverse the momentum of the race, but he is still stuck with Palin! And on the key question of whether she's qualified to be president, there is no statistically significant movement in the snap polls. Even worse, the Troopergate report is coming out October 10, which means more Palin-related damage is on the way. And now that she "went toe to toe" with Biden it will be much harder for Palin to dodge Couric-style interview requests or press conferences, but she is still likely to crash and burn in those encounters.
So I definitely disagree with predictions like this one from Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight --
-- which is similar to this headline from that clown Mark Halperin:
Why is the Palin coverage and ridicule not going to end until Election Night? Because people want to watch it. If the election isn't going to revert to a tight race, the media needs to find some way to attract viewers to the story. And don't tell me that Tina Fey won't play Palin on the SNL episode coming up within 48 hours of the VP debate.
I think all of this is great for Obama. McCain's campaign is run by fools, the impression of Palin as unprepared and problematic has improved slightly but also -- importantly -- solidified, the sideshow will continue in its current form until Nov. 4, and McCain cannot get rid of her.
This was their one shot, and they blew it. McCain better start hoping another bin Laden tape drops soon.
Plus, not only does McCain not reverse the momentum of the race, but he is still stuck with Palin! And on the key question of whether she's qualified to be president, there is no statistically significant movement in the snap polls. Even worse, the Troopergate report is coming out October 10, which means more Palin-related damage is on the way. And now that she "went toe to toe" with Biden it will be much harder for Palin to dodge Couric-style interview requests or press conferences, but she is still likely to crash and burn in those encounters.
So I definitely disagree with predictions like this one from Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight --
I suspect that the Sarah Palin chapter of the campaign is largely over.
-- which is similar to this headline from that clown Mark Halperin:
The Race, Status Quo Ante; For Palin, Late Night Jokes Could Cease
Why is the Palin coverage and ridicule not going to end until Election Night? Because people want to watch it. If the election isn't going to revert to a tight race, the media needs to find some way to attract viewers to the story. And don't tell me that Tina Fey won't play Palin on the SNL episode coming up within 48 hours of the VP debate.
I think all of this is great for Obama. McCain's campaign is run by fools, the impression of Palin as unprepared and problematic has improved slightly but also -- importantly -- solidified, the sideshow will continue in its current form until Nov. 4, and McCain cannot get rid of her.
This was their one shot, and they blew it. McCain better start hoping another bin Laden tape drops soon.
posted by Anonymous : 10/03/2008 01:06:00 AM
